Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $3,094$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(702 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,327.3}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 39.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,327.3\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $113$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(30.4 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{106.4}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 36.8)}}\) (asimptote \(106.4\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $798$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $71,419$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(4.47 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,597.4}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 104.2)}}\) (asimptote \(100,597.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,420$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(927 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,229.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 51.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,229.6\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $65,999$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,926$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(3.22 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(72.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,451.5}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 32.8)}}\) (asimptote \(8,451.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $251$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(89 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(62.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{239.0}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 30.0)}}\) (asimptote \(239.0\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $537$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,248$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.65 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,131.5}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 49.3)}}\) (asimptote \(7,131.5\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $329$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(93.6 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{323.9}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 35.8)}}\) (asimptote \(323.9\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $219$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $13,032$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(3.42 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,445.4}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 43.0)}}\) (asimptote \(12,445.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $606$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(197 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{589.4}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 33.5)}}\) (asimptote \(589.4\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $409$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,860$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(790 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(83.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,810.6}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 29.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,810.6\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(5.1 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(88.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.1}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 22.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10.1\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $61,838$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.64 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(54.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59,256.1}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 42.4)}}\) (asimptote \(59,256.1\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,771$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(2.76 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,514.8}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 38.3)}}\) (asimptote \(9,514.8\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $34,976$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $286,412$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(5.45 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(46.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{277,922.9}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 53.7)}}\) (asimptote \(277,922.9\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $44,283$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(9.27 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,073.9}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.3)}}\) (asimptote \(42,073.9\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $240,754$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $241,419$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(7.02 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(63.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{234,212.1}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(234,212.1\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,854$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(9.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,866.5}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.8)}}\) (asimptote \(33,866.5\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,621$ on 2020-07-04
